The exit poll estimates the UDF winning 69 seats, with a margin of plus or minus 9 seats, placing its likely range between 60 and 78 seats. The LDF is projected to secure 64 seats, with a margin of plus or minus 9 seats, giving it a range of 55 to 73 seats. The majority mark in the Kerala Legislative Assembly is 71 seats, indicating a closely contested outcome.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is also projected to improve its electoral performance in the state. According to the survey, the party is likely to win around 7 seats, with a margin of plus or minus 4 seats, placing its range between 3 and 11 seats.
The exit poll highlights significant voting patterns across communities. The UDF is expected to benefit strongly from minority support, securing approximately 53 percent of the Christian vote and 62 percent of the Muslim vote. Additionally, it is projected to receive 31 percent of Scheduled Caste votes, 32 percent of Nair votes, and 20 percent of Ezhava votes.
In contrast, the LDF is projected to draw its strongest support from Scheduled Castes and Ezhavas, with 49 percent support from each of these communities.
The findings come in the backdrop of multiple exit polls suggesting a setback for the incumbent LDF government led by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Earlier surveys conducted by Axis My India, People’s Insight, People’s Pulse, and Vote Vibe also projected an UDF victory. An aggregate of these exit polls estimated 75 seats for the UDF and 60 seats for the LDF.
In the 2021 Kerala Assembly elections, the Left Democratic Front broke the state’s long-standing pattern of alternating governments by securing a consecutive term, winning 99 seats. The United Democratic Front had secured 41 seats, while the National Democratic Alliance failed to win any representation. That victory was widely attributed to the leadership of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, who, according to Axis My India, remained a preferred leader among voters.
This election cycle has unfolded against a backdrop of increasing anti-incumbency sentiments against the LDF government. Reports of internal factional tensions within the Communist Party of India (Marxist) have also drawn public attention. The opposition has further accused the Chief Minister of nepotism, adding to the political pressure on the ruling alliance.
At the same time, the LDF has intensified its campaign rhetoric, alleging a tacit understanding between the ruling coalition and the Bharatiya Janata Party, further sharpening the political contest in the state.
The exit poll outcome underscores a tightly balanced political landscape in Kerala, where even marginal shifts in voter preference could determine the final formation of government.
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